Friday, December 28, 2018 / by Anne Rose
Real Estate Market Update for Dec 2018 | Kirk Pugh, Broker RealtorLet's go over some numbers as we approach the end of the year. The question I get everywhere is, "How's the market, how's the market, how's the market?"
We'll just give you a few statistics here because I'm a numbers guy. I read housing reports every month, and these numbers are through November, so it's relatively up-to-date. We will get reports back for December right after the New Year:
- The rate of home price appreciation (HPA) has decelerated for 6 months in a row
- The year over year price appreciation in our particular market is around 5.5%
- It is projected to slow to a pace of right around 3% in the 2019 year
- Existing home sales are down 2.1% year over year - homes that used and lived in
- Pending home sales are down 4.6% as relative to year to date last year
- New home sales are up 2.9% year over year, with a 14% decline month over month in October
- Housing starts continue to climb 5.7% year over year
- Inventory of new homes available for purchase for a few months now have overshot the long run average of how many homes are available
The supply of new homes is growing. Maybe at a pace that will outstrip demand. The supply of existing homes for sale are still near multi-decade lows. That's going back to 1982, so 35 years. And, mortgage rates, from September 2017 to October 2018, are up 100 basis points. So, we've got pretty healthy appreciation, a decline in inventory, mortgage rates are rising, and affordability is down.
This has something to do with inventory - there is not a whole lot out there to buy.
For a while now, in some of the real estate mastermind groups that I'm part of, we've heard about a softening of the market, and a slowing of the pace out West and in major metropolitan areas. In a couple of markets in North Carolina, realtors are starting to see days on market increase, fewer buyers in the market, and less quality inventory to sell.
The market is still great. KBT Realty Group has sold 50+ houses this month. But, it's harder to come by. Inventory is hard to come by. Buyers are hard to get qualified. Buyers are able to afford less because of a combination of the interest rate increases and home prices going up.
I think we will see some moderation in 2019. We're still bullish on real estate. We are out in the streets doing it everyday.
KBT Realty Group is here to help you, or to offer a qualified opinion if we can, call us at any time.